Everything should be rosy in the Wednesday garden, right? You would be wrong.
Despite the strong start, the underlying numbers are a growing cause for concern heading into the international break.
Expected goals (xG) has its critics, but it remains one of the clearest indicators of chance creation and territorial dominance. And right now, there are alarm bells with Wednesday’s xG figures.
Wednesday have posted inferior xG to Peterborough United, Wigan Athletic and Stockport County in their past three matches. They somehow escaped with five points but only because those opponents failed to convert gilt-edged chances. That luck won’t last forever.
The problem is that Wednesday’s identity remains unclear.
Stats, of course, are not everything. Far from it.
But Wednesday have not passed the eye test either. Supporters have been vocal about the dip in performance levels since the 7-2 demolition of Bromley.
Henrik Pedersen is not blind to their shortcomings. He knows the team is not perfect and has repeatedly called for patience after a summer overhaul of unprecedented scale. Bedding in 18 new players will take time and Wednesday have shown character and resilience to grind out results in this transitional period. Pedersen remains confident the team will sharpen up with more training time and expects their attacking cohesion to improve over the next three to four weeks.
“We have had a good start to the season,” centre-back Di’Shon Bernard told The Wednesday Word. “Before the season, I think we would have snapped your hands off to be where we are now. We can only get better.
“We can’t get carried away but we’re definitely aiming high.”
“All the new lads have gelled pretty quickly, especially the attacking players. They’ve got goals already which is always good. Once they get their confidence, they are ready to fire. We can’t get carried away but we’re definitely aiming high.”
The problem is that Wednesday’s identity remains unclear. What exactly do they want to be? A strong pressing side? More possession-based?
A youthful-Wednesday team were outplayed, outfought and outthought by a League Two side for 55 minutes last Tuesday. Yes, Pedersen made eight changes. Yes, key players were rested. But that does not excuse a desperately poor first half. Salford changed their entire XI and were quicker, sharper and more cohesive. It was embarrassingly one-sided. Wednesday were second best in every department.
Salford had nearly four times as many shots and registered 28 touches in the Wednesday box compared to 17. That imbalance feels unsustainable.
There was a reaction after the break. Pedersen’s changes paid off and Wednesday got the job done. Everyone knows going deep in the Jersey Mike’s Trophy is not the priority. Promotion is.
But sooner or later, Wednesday must start performing better - or the results that have papered over the cracks will begin to turn.
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I don't think it's any surprise that Pedersen is struggling to decide upon his strongest 11 - we are 7 games in for heaven's sake. As for using the Bromley game as a barometer, is there anybody on the planet that is daft enough to view the result as anything but an outlier? The only figure that matters, underlying or otherwise, is the points total. To expect the team to be a cohesive, well oiled unit at present is fanciful - another 7 games from now & I'll be much more concerned if we are having the same discussion. I'm not sure what the consensus is, but we are in a much better place after 7 games than I ever dared dream we would be.
Totally agree Joe. It seems atm like HP really doesn’t know how to use the abundance of attacking talent that we have, shoehorning people in just to get everybody in the team and it isn’t working. Fingers crossed he can find a formula that performs better going forward in these 3 weeks.